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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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