NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
As we head into the final week of the regular NFL campaign, just two postseason berths remain open. Yet, a great deal more is on the line, including the highly desired top seeds in each conference and four division titles.
The schedule makers have produced a perfect ending, with the final two postseason places on the line in two direct head-to-head matchups.
Current NFL Play-Off Standings
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The victor of the Steelers-Ravens game will claim the #4 spot and a home game in the first playoff round. Meanwhile, Buffalo and the Chargers are locked in as wildcard entrants.
The Texans require a win and a Jaguars loss to jump from the fifth seed to third. Denver will earn the top seed with a win, but a loss could open the door for the Patriots or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago (11-5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The South division will be claimed by the winner of the Panthers-Buccaneers game, granting them the fourth seed. Notably, Carolina could still claim the division even with a defeat, depending on other outcomes.
Green Bay are set at the seventh spot. The highlight, however, is the clash for the #1 seed in the NFC between the Seahawks and San Francisco, with a week off and home playoff games hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The top seed in each conference earns a valuable first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the play-offs.
During the Wild Card round, the remaining six playoff teams compete: the second seed hosts the seventh, third hosts sixth, and #4 faces #5.
For the second round, the top seeds enter the competition, hosting the weakest remaining seed. The conference title games are then played at the highest seed, highlighting the critical importance of earning that top spot.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This fierce grudge match reaches its climax in the final game of the NFL season. With the AFC North and a play-off berth at stake, this is a genuine elimination scenario.
Pittsburgh have been up and down all year, while the Ravens struggled early but are still in the hunt. Player availability may prove critical: Pittsburgh may miss star receiver DK Metcalf, while the Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson is a doubt with a health issue.
Star rusher the powerful back might emerge as the x-factor for Baltimore in what promises to be a hard-hitting, defensive battle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the division title is at stake when the Seahawks travels to the 49ers. The victorious team secures the NFC's top seed and the path to the championship game that it provides.
This matchup pits an explosive 49ers offense against a stingy Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy returned, San Francisco have been the league's top offense. On the other hand, Seattle's defense is ranked among the best in the league.
Seattle QB Sam Darnold needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have plagued him this year. Whoever wins this clash earns a massive edge for the postseason journey.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this game with much momentum. Tampa Bay have lost four straight, while the Panthers have missed recent opportunities to clinch the title.
For Carolina it's straightforward: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the scenario is trickier. Even with a win, they require another result from the Falcons-Saints game to steal the divisional championship.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos hold the cards for the AFC's top seed. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team likely to rest key players seals it.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A New England victory combined with a Broncos loss would give the #1 ranking to Bill Belichick's team.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They need a triumph and losses by the Broncos and Patriots to achieve an improbable ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could allow them to be overtaken by the Texans in the AFC South.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
