How Trump Achieved a Gaza Strip Breakthrough That Escaped Joe Biden
Initially, the Israeli air strike on the Hamas delegation in Qatar appeared like another intensification that drove the hope of peace out of reach.
This strike on September 9 breached the territorial integrity of an US partner and threatened widening the hostilities into a region-wide war.
Diplomacy appeared to be collapsing.
Instead, it proved to be a pivotal event that culminated in a agreement, announced by President Donald Trump, to release all captives still held.
This is a goal that he, and President Joe Biden before him, had pursued for almost 24 months.
It is just the initial phase towards a more durable peace, and the specifics of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and complete Israeli pullout remain to be worked out.
Yet if this agreement stands, it could be Trump's signature achievement of his return to office - one that escaped Biden and his administration.
The president's distinct approach and key alliances with the Israeli government and the Middle Eastern nations appear to have contributed in this breakthrough.
But, as with most diplomatic achievements, there were also factors at play beyond the influence of both leaders.
A Close Relationship That Biden Never Had
Publicly, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are consistently friendly.
Trump likes to say that the nation has no greater ally, and Netanyahu has described Trump as the country's "greatest ever ally in the US presidency". And these positive statements have been matched by deeds.
Throughout his first presidential term, Trump relocated the American diplomatic mission in the country from its former location to the contested capital and discarded a long-held US position that Israeli settlements in the Palestinian West Bank are against international law, the position under international law.
After Israel began its air strikes against the Islamic Republic in the summer, Trump ordered US bombers to target the nation's atomic sites with its largest non-nuclear weapons.
Those visible shows of backing may have allowed the president the leeway to apply more influence on the Israeli government in private. As per sources, the president's envoy, Steve Witkoff, browbeat the prime minister in the latter part of the year into accepting a halt in fighting in exchange for the release of a number of captives.
After Israeli forces attacked against Syria's military in the summer, including hitting a place of worship, the US president urged Netanyahu to change course.
The leader exhibited a degree of determination and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is virtually unprecedented, according to Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "It's unheard of of an American president literally telling an Israeli leader that they must agree or else."
Biden's relationship with Netanyahu's government was consistently more tenuous.
The Biden team's "close embrace approach" argued that the US had to embrace the nation publicly in order to enable it to influence the country's war conduct behind closed doors.
Beneath this was the president's decades-long of support for the state, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move Biden took risked fracturing his own domestic support, while his successor's loyal conservative voters provided him more room to manoeuvre.
In the end, domestic politics or personal relationships may have had little impact than the reality that, during his term, Israel was not ready to reach an agreement.
Several months into his new administration, with Iran chastened, Hezbollah to its northern border greatly diminished and Gaza in ruins, every one of its key military goals had been achieved.
Commercial Background Assisted Gain Gulf's Backing
The Israeli missile attack in the Qatari capital, which resulted in the death of a local national but no Hamas officials, led the president to deliver an final demand to Netanyahu. Hostilities had to end.
The US leader had given the Israeli military a relatively free hand in the territory. The president lent US armed support to Israel's campaign in the neighboring country. However an attack on Qatari territory was a different matter completely, moving him closer to the Arab position on how best to conclude the conflict.
A number of Trump officials have informed media outlets that this was a turning point which motivated the leader to exert maximum pressure to get a peace deal done.
The leader's close ties with the Gulf states are widely known. He has business dealings with the emirate and the UAE. The president began each of his administrations with state visits to Saudi Arabia. Recently, he also stopped in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
The president's normalization agreements, which normalised relations between Israel and a number of Arab nations, including the UAE, was the most significant foreign policy success of his first term.
The time devoted in the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula in recent months contributed to change his thinking, according to an expert of the Council on Foreign Relations. Trump did not visit Israel on this regional tour but went to the United Arab Emirates, the kingdom and the state where the leader heard consistent appeals to bring an end to the war.
Less than a month after that attack on Doha, Trump sat close as Netanyahu himself called the Qatari leadership to express regret. Subsequently, the Israeli leader gave approval on the president's 20-point peace plan for Gaza - one that additionally had the backing of influential Arab states in the area.
Assuming Trump's relationship with Netanyahu gave him the room to influence Israel to reach an agreement, his past with Muslim leaders may have secured their backing, and helped them persuade Hamas to agree to the arrangement.
"A key factor that clearly happened was that President Trump developed influence with the Israelis, and through intermediaries with Hamas," notes Jon Alterman of the a research center.
"This was crucial. The capacity to do this on his timing, and avoid yielding to the demands of the combatants has been a challenge that many earlier administrations have struggled with, and he appears to do relatively successfully."
The fact that the president is far better liked in Israel than the prime minister himself was leverage that he employed to his benefit, he adds.
Currently Israel has committed to releasing over a thousand Palestinians imprisoned in its jails and has consented to a limited pullback from the strip.
Hamas will release all the captives still held, living and dead, captured in the initial October 7 Hamas attack, which caused the loss of over 1,200 Israeli citizens.
A conclusion to the war, which has led to the devastation of Gaza and the fatalities of more than 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal