Foreign Office Cautioned Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader
Newly disclosed papers reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".
Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator
Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.
Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.
Isolation Strategy Deemed Not Working
Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.
Options outlined in the documents included:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by force";
- "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."
The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".
Warnings of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles
It warned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.
"Barring a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."
The document adds: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."
Long-Term Strategy Recommended
Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.
Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."
The then outgoing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".
Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.
